US10 Year Yield Continues Slides Lower

The US 10 year yield dipped today, reaching an intraday low of 2.584%. This move takes the yield closer to the next target, which is between 2.53% and 2.557% (this is the range between the swing high from March 28 and the swing low from April 7, before the recent run-up).

This is the sixth time in the last eight trading days that the price has gone down, after peaking at 3.081% on July 21. From that high to today’s low, the yield has declined by 50 basis points. Last week, the FOMC raised rates by 75 basis points.

US inflation expectations and concerns around a possible recession have lowered following the Fed’s continued policy of interest rate hikes. Data from ISM and PMI showed sharp declines in prices today. Oil prices are also down. Other commodities are following suit, with the first ship carrying Ukrainian crops leaving port today after the UN intervened to free up supplies to countries in need.

As of the end of April, corn is trading at 600—relatively unchanged from its end-of-year 2021 closing price. In contrast, wheat has risen to 794, up from its770 close at the end of 2021. June saw soybean futures climb as high as 1789; however, the commodity has since retreated and is currently trading at 1403, not far off from its 1339 end-of-year close. After peaking in March 2021 at 1357, lumber prices have tumbled—the commodity is now trading at 532, its lowest level since August 2021.

Corn is trading near closing levels from end of year 2021 at 600 after trading as high at 824 at the end of April.

Wheat is trading at 794 after closing the year at 770. The high reached 1363 in March.

Soybean futures are at 1403 after trading as high at 1789 in June. The end of year close was at 1339.
Lumber futures are at 532 well below the end of year close of 1122><> The price traded at the lowest level since August 2021 and down from the high of 1357.